Interview Key Points

Here are the key topics and points discussed in the interview:

The Liberal World Order and its Future

Discussion on the current state and preservation of the liberal world order.

• Defense of the Liberal World Order: The speaker advocates for the preservation of the liberal world order, emphasizing international institutions, rule of law, and norms.
• Giving Agency to Other Countries: To maintain the order, countries that feel it was designed 80 years ago in the West's image need more power and influence.
• Multilateralism vs. Transactionalism: The speaker believes there are more multilateralists globally than transactionalists, suggesting a basis for a more inclusive order.
• Open Societies: The discussion also touches upon the defense of open societies as part of this broader framework.

Values-Based Realism and Dignified Foreign Policy

A framework for navigating foreign policy in the current complex global landscape.

• Values-Based Realism: This approach involves staying true to core values (democracy, freedom, human rights, rule of law) while being realistic about the inability to solve all global problems with like-minded countries alone. It necessitates finding common ground with diverse partners.
• Dealing with the World as It Is: The importance of engaging with the existing global reality rather than an idealized version.
• Dignified Foreign Policy: This involves treating international partners with respect and behaving in a way that earns their trust, particularly crucial in a post-colonial world.
• Instrument for Transition: "Values-based realism" is presented as a tool to navigate a period of global transition.

Navigating Unpredictability and Transatlantic Relations

Addressing the challenges of a volatile global environment and the evolving relationship between Europe and the US.

• Unpredictable World: The reality of dealing with "curveballs" and daily crises in foreign policy.
• Greenland Incident as a Transatlantic Crisis: The situation is highlighted as the most significant transatlantic crisis since Suez, underscoring the need for lessons learned.
• Lessons from the Greenland Incident:
  • The need for a mix of demonstrating seriousness (e.g., through countermeasures) and engaging in frenetic, behind-the-scenes diplomacy.
  • The successful de-escalation involved working with various actors and considering different outcomes (good, bad, ugly).
  • Respect for sovereignty and territorial integrity as a key principle of international order.
• Evolving Meaning of the West: The acknowledgment that the concept of "the West" is undergoing fundamental changes.
• Atlanticism: The speaker identifies as a proud Atlanticist, despite the changing dynamics of the West.
• Pragmatism in Transatlantic Relations: The advice for Europeans to be pragmatic, use their value space, and cooperate with the US where possible (e.g., on Ukraine, NATO), while acknowledging areas of disagreement.
• Private vs. Public Disagreements: The approach of handling disagreements either publicly or privately, with the speaker favoring the latter.

European Sovereignty and Integration

Examining Europe's path to self-determination and the future of the European Union.

• Finland's EU Membership: Finland is presented as a model of full EU membership without opt-outs, driven by security concerns and a desire to avoid isolation.
• NATO Membership: The speaker regrets not joining NATO earlier, with the attack on Ukraine being a catalyst for their eventual membership.
• "Don't Throw the Baby Out with the Bathwater": A call for Europeans not to abandon the core principles of cooperation despite transatlantic challenges.
• European Strategic Autonomy: The concept of Europe needing to be sovereign and capable of independent action in a changing world.
• Finland's Transformation: The shift in Finnish identity from neutrality to a strong advocate for European sovereignty and the EU.
• Deepening Integration due to Pressure: External pressures from the US and Russia are seen as catalysts for deeper European integration and the pursuit of strategic autonomy.
• Europe Looking Elsewhere: A strategy of hedging or de-risking, which involves diversifying partnerships beyond traditional alliances, including potential new trade agreements with regions like Mercosur and India.
• Europe's Moment: A belief that this period of geopolitical shift presents an opportunity for Europe to assert itself on the global stage.
• Europe's Stability as an Asset: The perception of Europe as a stable region attracting investment, contrasting with its past reputation for being slow and bureaucratic.

The War in Ukraine

An analysis of the peace process, the prevailing narrative, and Russia's strategic failures.

• Carefully Optimistic Peace Process: Progress has been made since the involvement of figures like Jared Kushner, with multiple meetings and a convergence of plans.
• US, Europe, and Ukraine on the Same Page: A positive development where key allies are aligned on the approach to peace.
• Disputing the "Ukraine is Losing" Narrative: This narrative is identified as Russian propaganda, not supported by available intelligence.
• Putin's Strategic Failures:
  • Failure to annex Ukraine.
  • Failure to prevent NATO enlargement (leading to Finland and Sweden joining).
  • Failure to prevent the remilitarization of Europe.
  • Failures in projecting power in other regions (Iran, Laos, Syria, Venezuela).
• Military Reality: Ukraine is holding its ground, and Russian advances are minimal, indicating a slow war of attrition with high Russian casualties.
• Russia's Motivation to Continue: The war is too significant for Putin to lose, and the dire state of the Russian economy compels its continuation rather than any territorial ambitions.
• Recommendations: Continue supporting Ukraine and exerting pressure on Russia to achieve a deal.

EU Enlargement and Differentiated Integration

Exploring the complex process of Ukraine's potential EU membership and the concept of flexible integration.

• Ukraine's EU Membership as Strategic and Existential: Integration is seen as necessary for security, rather than purely a legal or juridical process.
• Paradox of Integration: While security demands integration, the political realities make it challenging.
• Differentiated Integration/Flexible Integration: The concept that not all member states need to participate in all EU policies simultaneously, allowing for multi-speed and variable geometry approaches.
• Reversing the Enlargement Process: A potential shift where membership is granted first, followed by the negotiation of chapters, as a way to accommodate countries like Ukraine.
• Challenges of Ukraine's Integration: The sheer size of Ukraine's population and agricultural market, alongside its significant military capacity, presents integration challenges.
• Implications for Military Power: Ukraine's accession could significantly boost the EU's military strength.
• Absorption Capacity: The EU's ability to absorb new members in terms of institutions, budget, and policies is crucial.
• Geopolitical Mistake to Exclude Ukraine: The speaker strongly believes that excluding Ukraine from the EU would be a strategic error.
• Implications for Non-EU Countries: The UK, Norway, and Iceland are mentioned in the context of EU relationships, with a speculative remark about the UK's potential desire to rejoin the EU.

The Utility of Public vs. Private Diplomacy

Examining the strategic use of public statements and private negotiations in foreign policy.

• Foreign Policy Pillars: Values, interests, and power (which translates to influence for smaller players).
• Two Pillars of Diplomacy:
  • State-to-state relations: Formal interactions based on shared values, interests, history, etc.
  • Personal relationships: The individual rapport between leaders, crucial for trust and direct communication.
• Making the Judgment: Leaders must decide what to say publicly and what to handle privately.
• Dignified Foreign Policy and Trust: Private communication, when based on trust and respect, is not appeasement but a form of dignified foreign policy.
• Public Arena as a Tool: Public diplomacy is an important instrument, exemplified by the use of social media by leaders.
• The Juncture of Public and Private: The most effective diplomacy often occurs at the intersection of these two spheres.